Tokyo: US President Donald Trump arrived in Japan on Monday, marking the second stop of his extensive five-day tour of Asia, which stands as his longest international journey since assuming office in January. This visit follows his attendance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where he played a pivotal role in brokering a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia.
According to Deutsche Welle, the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords were established following a ceasefire initiated by Trump's intervention in July, after violent clashes erupted over the prolonged Thailand-Cambodia border dispute. Under the agreement, Thailand consented to release 18 Cambodian soldiers detained since July. Trump's influence extended to the signing of reciprocal trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, while Vietnam committed to increasing its purchase of US products to address a trade surplus projected to reach $123 billion in 2024.
Trump's influence is not solely limited to political arenas; it extends significantly into economic spheres. As he departed Malaysia for Japan, the newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is anticipating building a positive relationship with Trump to mitigate trade tensions. During his flight on Air Force One, Trump expressed his intent to discuss the "great friendship" between the US and Japan.
Since taking office, Trump claims his administration has resolved eight conflicts in as many months. At the Kuala Lumpur summit, he remarked, "We are averaging one a month. There is only one left." However, Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labor Advocates, argues that Trump's actions are self-serving, aimed at securing a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for his intervention in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict.
The peace accord between Thailand and Cambodia was partly driven by Trump's threat to impose a 49% tariff on US exports to both nations, a measure avoided by agreeing to a 19% tariff instead. Robertson emphasized the dependency of both countries on the American market, suggesting they had little choice but to acquiesce to Trump's demands.
Trade plays a crucial role in Trump's regional sway. Ian Chong, a political analyst in Singapore, highlighted the leverage the US holds through tariffs and trade, impacting Southeast Asian economies integral to the global supply chain. The US's trade relationship with ASEAN nations, valued at $475 billion in 2024, underscores the region's economic dependence on maintaining favorable US relations.
Trump leveraged his administration's efforts in preventing the Thai-Cambodia conflict from escalating, expressing surprise at the speed of resolution. The visit also provided an opportunity for Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar to engage directly with Trump, solidifying a reciprocal trade agreement.
Chong noted that Southeast Asian leaders are keen to maintain positive relations with Trump while avoiding compliance with China's economic demands. Historically, the US has played a stabilizing role in the region, ensuring access to crucial trade routes, a role that could be compromised if US engagement wanes.
Despite regional engagements, some, like political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, view Trump's interest in ASEAN as secondary to larger geopolitical ambitions. Thitinan suggested Trump's focus lies in quick, favorable outcomes, particularly regarding China. Trump's trip includes plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with hopes of striking a deal, and potentially extending his visit for discussions with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.